Data Center Outlook Q3 2026

Capex is rising because of prices, not higher compute demand

Data Center Outlook Q3 2026

About this report

The 2026 to 2030 data center pipeline has nearly doubled to more than 100GW, but most of it remains speculative. Currence's Q3 2026 Data Center Outlook tracks what is actually getting built, what is stalling, and why.

This edition covers the first capacity to come online since Q1, the rise of gas as the default on-site power source, what kills projects versus what delays them, and how memory and component prices are driving the jump in hyperscaler capex.

Key findings

  • 55% of the announced pipeline is unlikely to come online, and 36% of projects have no disclosed power strategy.
  • 0.5GW came online this quarter, up from zero in Q2, led by Microsoft's Fairwater Phase 1.
  • Natural gas leads on-site power, with 1.5GW online and 11GW in construction.
  • Community and political opposition drives 52% of cancellations but only 3% of delays.
  • Five companies are on track to spend nearly $790bn in capex, roughly double their 2025 total.