Climate Tech on the Ballot in 2024 US Elections

The 2024 US election presented a binary moment for US climate policy, especially for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This report walks through each possible outcome, from a full Republican sweep to a Democratic sweep, and explains how each could affect the IRA's tax incentives, funding programs, and regulations.

Based on interviews with policy experts, it decodes the political and legal mechanisms behind repeal and modification so investors and companies can plan for each scenario.

• A wholesale IRA repeal would require a Republican sweep with wide margins and would still face legal and political challenges.
• The size of congressional majorities can make or break efforts to repeal, modify, or expand the IRA.
• EV tax credits were a likely concession in budget negotiations.
• The 2025 expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set up a broader budget fight that could pull in the IRA.
• Private investment in clean energy projects, largely in Republican-led states, could act as a stabilizing force.